Long-Term External Security Threats from Indonesia’s Perspective – Part 2: Australia and ASEAN Stability

Key Points

• Some Indonesian officials are suspicious of Australia’s strategic goals in the region based on past actions that opposed Jakarta’s interests.
• The unlikely possibility that Australia will support an independent West Papua may become a cause for concern if international focus on the independence movement continues to grow.
• Territorial disputes in the South China Sea, rapidly-increasing tensions and the possibility of a Cold War between China and the United States could cause divisions between South-East Asian countries.
• ASEAN members appear more likely to maintain loose bonds to the organisation rather than integrate more closely in the long-term future, meaning that divisions caused by external pressures could become a catalyst for issues such as regional boundary disputes to escalate.